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"Beware the Just Like bird"

My apologies to Lewis Carroll. Over the years I've learned the "Just Like" is a bird that's the harbinger of a bad decision.

When you hear someone say that the situation you're facing is "just like" another situation, you know that person has given up thinking. Every situation is unique.

That doesn't mean that history and precedent have no value. It's just wise to remember Mark Twain's observation that "History does not repeat. But it does rhyme."

The challenge with using either history or your own experience to solve a current problem is sorting out what's the same and what's different.

That's easier said than done. It takes a process and rigorous discussion. Here are some areas to seek similarities and differences.

The economy
Customers
Competitors
Available resources

Inside your organization, look for strengths and weaknesses. Outside, identify opportunities and threats. What was then? What is now?

There is no magic to this particular analysis. Any rigorous analysis of similarities and differences between the current situation and the previous one will do. Rigorous analysis is the arrow that kills the "Just Like" bird and improves the possibility of a good decision.

Additional Resource

Thinking in Time: The Uses of History for Decision-Makers
by Richard E. Neustadt and Ernest R. May

This book will give you tools that you can use to sort out what's the same (the rhymes) and what's different and then use your analysis to make better decisions. If you're a history buff, there's an added benefit. You'll enjoy the anecdotes and analysis of historical events, such as The Bay of Pigs, where one of the authors was an advisor.

Here are three other recent posts on decision making.

Why good managers make bad decisions
Erin White interviewed Dartmouth professor Sydney Finkelstein in the Wall Street Journal about his research on decision making. I thought the questions were good and the answers lacked depth.

With the humans come the emotions
Despite what you may have learned in economics, human beings make decisions for all kinds of reasons other than maximizing economic good. And they always bring their emotional humanness to the decision-making task. You'll make better decisions if you understand that.

Tips for Better Decision Making
Decision making will always be a human and error-strewn process. But over the years I've found some things that will increase the likelihood of good decisions.

Wally's Working Supervisor's Support Kit is a collection of information and tools to help working supervisors do a better job. It's based on what Wally's learned in over twenty years of supervisory skills training. Click here to check it out.