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I just came across a report by Booz & Company on a survey they did in December 2008 of over 800 senior managers around the world. They asked those managers about how confident they were that their company was doing the right thing in the current crisis. The following paragraph jumped out at me.

"According to the survey, 40% of senior managers doubt that their leadership has a credible plan to address the economic crisis, while an even greater number—46%—are not sure that their leadership could carry out the plan, credible or not. Additionally, one-third of all CEO and CXO-level respondents do not have confidence in the plans that they presumably wrote themselves."

Read the last sentence again. One third of top executives say they don't have confidence in the plans they wrote themselves.

That answer could result from the way the question was phrased. The question might have been something like, "Do you think your current plan will work?" If so, a perfectly rational response is "I don't know."

Planning in a whitewater economy is not like planning when the waters are calm. And this whitewater economy is more challenging than previous ones, due to shriveled credit markets and worldwide scope. If you're going to plan for your business during this whitewater economy, here are some suggestions.

Stay strategic. To quote Erika Andersen, concentrate on "those core directional choices that are most likely to start you moving and keep you moving toward the future you envision…to get you over, around, or through the difficulties that surround you."

Play lots of "what if?" You can call it "scenario planning" if you choose. For me that's a formal way to play "what if?" While you walk the dog, or drive to work, or wait at the dentist's office use the time to think about what could happen and how you should respond.

Capture your ideas. No matter how good you think an idea is, it will float away unless you capture it. Consider a strategic investment in a small digital voice recorder to capture ideas while you're driving. For times when you can't talk, like when you're daydreaming in church, use index cards.

Especially in a whitewater economy, the idea isn't to plan for a predictable future. Even more than usual, Peter Drucker's observation holds. "The only thing we know about the future is that it will be different."

So think about how things might be different. Then you'll be ready for whatever future shows up.

Wally's Working Supervisor's Support Kit is a collection of information and tools to help working supervisors do a better job. It's based on what Wally's learned in over twenty years of supervisory skills training. Click here to check it out.