Netflix and the Data that Lied
|
Subscribe to the Three Star Leadership Blog |
|
|
![]() |
|
|
Contact Wally about coaching, consulting, or speaking to your group. |
This past summer, high-riding Netflix announced an increase of 60 percent in the price of a combination of data streams and DVDs. Netflix subscribers were upset. Then, the company trumped that by announcing that, henceforth, DVDs and streaming would be handled by two different companies, requiring subscribers to use two different web sites.
The result was a net loss of 800,000 subscribers in the third quarter. Netflix stock was trading at close to $300 in mid-July. Today it's trading around $80.
This week, the New York Times has run two articles on the debacle. "Reed Hastings Knows He Messed Up" appeared on Sunday and "How Netflix Lost 800,000 Members, and Good Will" came out on Tuesday. Here are some things you can learn from the situation.
Metrics are good. Metrics are powerful. But metrics aren't everything.
The only actual customer that Reed Hastings seems to have talked to about his plan was a friend who told him it was a bad idea. Hastings discounted the warning because he thinks CEOs should discount what their friends say. He didn't need to take his friend's comment to heart, but it should have sparked a quest for information about how actual customers might actually react to the planned changes.
Instead of looking outside for that, Netflix looked inside its computers where data indicated that people were migrating to streaming faster than anticipated. They jumped from that to their "let's confuse them and let them eat DVDs" strategy. The company used focus groups, but only to test possible names for the new DVD spinoff. After all, the data had already "said" that splitting into two companies was a good idea.
Even if he chose not to listen to his friend, a little common sense would have come in handy. When you take things away from people, they get upset. Netflix chose to take away options while increasing complexity. You shouldn't need a lot of market research to tell you that's a bad idea.
Especially in tough economic times, a 60 percent increase in anything is a big hit. Mr. Hastings doesn't see that in emotional terms at all. Instead, according to the NY Times, "Twice in the interview, Mr. Hastings linked the hostility toward Netflix’s price change and proposed breakup to the angry mood of the country, even citing the Tea Party and the Occupy Wall Street movement by name."
So here's a news flash. The Tea Party and Occupy Wall Street movements by themselves would have had no impact on Netflix. What got people upset was what Netflix did. No other company that I'm aware of lost close to a million customers and three quarters of its capitalization recently, despite the mood of the country.
Boss's Bottom Lines
Data don't tell you anything, they just lie there quietly while you interpret them.
Data don't buy things. People buy things.
Additional Resource
Read Scott Eblin's post, "Three Leadership Lessons from the Netflix Slide."
Wally's Working Supervisor's Support Kit is a collection of information and tools to help working supervisors do a better job. It's based on what Wally's learned in over twenty years of supervisory skills training. Click here to check it out.




I didn't get the idea of splitting up the company. And that logic seems even more questionable now that they reversed it. But I still think Netflix is very well run. I tend to believe we make a mistake when jump all over short term issues for companies that have long term positive track records.
Now I don't have a huge number of companies that I think have long term positive management track records. But I think Netflix is one of them. And just like all those jumping on Toyota a few years ago were mistaken (as I said at the time and still believe) I believe those thinking Netflix made huge errors are wrong. Toyota made some mistakes. They still were and are better managed than 98% (or more) of companies.
Netflix has made some mistakes. My belief is the underlying business realities forced difficult choices. Just sitting around doing nothing (and not "angering customers" was not an option. They could have handled it better. But once again I think they are better managed than most all companies - I don't trust them as much as Toyota.
There stock price (given the business) seemed insane to me. I liked the management wanted to invest with them. Couldn't see doing it based on the stock price. I will be looking at them again.
Today Amazon falls into that camp for me. I love the management and business for Amazon. The stock price just seems way to high given the risks (and limited profits so far). I sold my shares in the last year (below where it is at now). I hope I can buy again, but at these prices I just can't see it. If the business improves a lot and the stock price even increases I could buy (it isn't the absolute price it is the price given everything I know and believe now).
The businesses Amazon and Netflix are in are challenging and full of risk.
Reply to this
Thanks for the comment, John. In general, I agree. For me, though, the way Hastings made those two decisions is a red flag. Only time will tell if it's a real warning or a false alarm.
Reply to this